Hello Folks, good time to step back and see what NIFTY has done in the last few months:
- Last 6 months: up 10%
- Last 1 month: down 4.6%
Going forward my estimate is: that we are likely to see a slight correction.
With US elections and with RBI cutting IR (at some point) the rally might re-start.
There is unlikely to be more than 15% correction (at least not based on current macros)
Many folks are saying that there is a credit crisis brewing.
Well this is NOT the first time.
This happens in every business cycle.
Some Small Finance Banks will have a higher NPAs going forward.
(as the maturity of lending that was done at high IR typically starts 2-3 years after; we are in that phase)
But, I think this is also getting reflected in the stock price.
For eg. Ujjivan SFB: it has fallen from 60 to 38 this is like 35% correction. I don't see a massive downside (fundamentally)-- but technically & sentimentally yes, things can always fall.
To cut the long story short: if you are buying good things at 20-30% discount, and are willing to hold, money will be made (like always!)
Don't overstretch.
Be diversified.
And, stay cool.
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